Junior Maih

About

I am an applied macroeconomist and econometrician with a passion for developing the algorithms and software that turn frontier methods into practical tools for policy analysis. My research centers on regime-switching DSGE models, nonlinear filtering and estimation, optimal monetary policy, and conditional forecasting.

I am a Senior Economist and Special Adviser at Norges Bank. Previously I was an economist in the Modeling Division of the IMF's Research Department (2011–2013), an Associate Professor at the BI Norwegian Business School (2013–2021), and a member of the Dynare development team (2011–2025). I hold a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Oslo.

RISE — Rationality In Switching Environments

RISE is an object-oriented MATLAB toolbox for the modeling, solution, estimation, and analysis of nonlinear switching rational-expectations systems — with constant-parameter models as a special case. Highlights include:

• Higher-order perturbation solutions of regime-switching DSGE models
• Optimal policy with and without regime switching: Ramsey, commitment, loose commitment
• Occasionally binding constraints (e.g. the zero lower bound) via regime switching
• Structural, reduced-form, panel, and proxy VARs — with and without regime switching
• Nonlinear filtering, Bayesian estimation, conditional forecasting, and DSGE-VAR analysis

RISE exists in two generations, both documented online:

• RISE Modern — a ground-up redesign under active development: DSGE, VAR, SVAR, proxy SVAR, BVAR-DSGE, and panel models consolidated behind a single model class, on a unified regime-switching state-space architecture. Adds perturbation solutions of arbitrary order (k-th order), k-th order Taylor projections, heterogeneous-agent (HANK) modeling, non-cooperative games, and an interactive cockpit for browser-based experimentation. Code access for collaborating institutions and course participants — get in touch.
• RISE Stable — the mature, feature-complete version behind more than a decade of research, policy work, and teaching: perturbation up to 5th order and support for non-cooperative games.
• Public release — the long-standing open-source version on GitHub, with perturbation up to 5th order.

Next: the RISE Conference 2026 at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, September 17–18, 2026, followed by a hands-on RISE mini-course on September 19. Earlier dedicated RISE workshops: Tokyo (2025) and Pretoria (2024); courses taught at the University of Glasgow, Heriot-Watt University, and central banks and institutions worldwide.

Invited teaching & courses

• International Monetary Fund — ICD course, Washington, DC (2026); mini-course “Solving and Estimating Macroeconomic Models with Regime Switches” (2021); ongoing modeling projects with MCM (2024–2026)
• Federal Reserve System — Board of Governors (2012, 2022); Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta (2009–2012, 2017) and Cleveland (2021, 2022, 2025)
• European Central Bank — RISE toolbox presentation (2015) and invited visits (2014, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2024)
• Bank of Canada — invited visits and workshops (2015, 2018, 2019)
• RISE workshops — Tokyo, Japan (2025); Pretoria, South Africa (2024)
• Universities — RISE courses at the University of Glasgow and Heriot-Watt University (2024); regular lectures at Waseda, Kobe, Indiana, and others
• Dynare community — Dynare Summer School (Paris, 2023, 2024); advanced-user workshops at the EC Joint Research Centre, Ispra (2023–2025)
• Regional central-bank training — SEACEN (Kuala Lumpur), CEMLA (Mexico City), BEAC (Yaoundé), and the central banks of Armenia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Tanzania, among others

Refereed publications

• Nigar Hashimzade, Oleg Kirsanov, Tatiana Kirsanova & Junior Maih (2026). Filtering and Smoothing in State-Space Models with Multiple Regimes. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, April 2026, 1–29.
• Junior Maih, Babatunde S. Omotosho & Bo Yang (2026). Mitigating the Impact of Fuel Subsidy Removal in an Oil-Producing Emerging Economy. Energy Economics, vol. 156.
• Johan Gustafsson, Xiaofei Ma, Junior Maih & Mathias Vesterberg (2025). Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy under an Energy Supply Shock. Energy Policy, vol. 203.
• Junior Maih, Falk Mazelis, Roberto Motto & Annukka Ristiniemi (2021). Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area and the US. Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 70.
• Yoosoon Chang, Junior Maih & Fei Tan (2021). Origins of Monetary Policy Shifts: A New Approach to Regime Switching in DSGE Models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 133.
• Ragna Alstadheim, Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih (2021). Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation of Commodity Exporters and Importers. Energy Economics, vol. 96.
• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Vegard H. Larsen & Junior Maih (2018). Oil and Macroeconomic (In)stability. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 10(4), 128–151.
• Karsten Gerdrup, Frank Hansen, Tord Krogh & Junior Maih (2017). Leaning Against the Wind When Credit Bites Back. International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), 287–320.
• Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih (2014). Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Stabilization in Norway and Sweden. In Reform Capacity and Macroeconomic Performance in the Nordic Countries, Oxford University Press.
• Davide Debortoli, Junior Maih & Ricardo Nunes (2014). Loose Commitment in Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Models: Theory and Applications. Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), 175–198.
• Hilde C. Bjørnland, Kai Leitemo & Junior Maih (2011). Estimating the Natural Rates in a Simple New Keynesian Framework. Empirical Economics, vol. 40(3), 755–777.

Selected working papers

• Nigar Hashimzade, Oleg Kirsanov, Tatiana Kirsanova & Junior Maih (2024). On Bayesian Filtering for Markov Regime Switching Models. arXiv 2402.08051; CESifo WP 10941.
• Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, Johan Gustafsson, Xiaofei Ma & Junior Maih (2025). Climate Policy and Gender Inequality. Norges Bank WP 11/2025.
• Junior Maih & Wooheon Rhee (2025). Revisiting the Asian Currency Crisis in South Korea: A Counterfactual Analysis Using a Regime-Switching DSGE Model. Norges Bank WP 6/2025.
• Ryo Kato, Junior Maih & Shin-Ichi Nishiyama (2025). Trend Inflation in the Japanese pre-2000s: A Markov-Switching DSGE Estimation. Norges Bank WP 3/2025.
• Jin Cao, Masashige Hamano & Junior Maih (2024). Financial Frictions, Heterogeneous Firms and Monetary Policy. Norges Bank WP 13/2024.
• Andrew Binning & Junior Maih (2017). Modelling Occasionally Binding Constraints Using Regime-Switching. Norges Bank WP 2017/23.
• Junior Maih (2015). Efficient Perturbation Methods for Solving Regime-Switching DSGE Models. Norges Bank WP 2015/01.
• Junior Maih (2010). Conditional Forecasts in DSGE Models. Norges Bank WP 2010/07.

Full list on IDEAS/RePEc.

Talks

I have given invited lectures, seminars, and conference presentations at more than sixty institutions across five continents, including the Bank of England, Sveriges Riksbank, Banque de France, the Bundesbank, the National Bank of Belgium, the European Stability Mechanism, the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand, and universities from Stanford and Cambridge to Waseda and Stellenbosch. Recent highlights (2025): the European Stability Mechanism, the Cleveland Fed, the Bank of England, the 19th Dynare Conference (Helsinki), SNDE (San Antonio), and the 3rd RISE Workshop (Tokyo).